photo by cliff1066
Written by Nathan White, Chief Investment Officer
Below is an article taken from the Wall Street Journal Online.This article does a great job of summarizing a lot of the misconception regarding the magnitude of the economic downturn and the subsequent fiscal and monetary reactions. It focuses on how politicians exacerbate situations for political purposes - surprise!
I hold the same view as Professor Melzer that the economy would turn on its own and the main threat now are government actions that will slow the recovery. Policy makers often overreact to economic downturns and enact policies (e.g., higher taxes, more regulation) that make it harder to let the economy grow.
What Happened to the Depression?
Despite the rhetoric from Washington, we were never close to 25% unemployment.
By Allan H. Meltzer
Day after day, economists, politicians and journalists repeat the trope
that the current recession is the worst since the Great Depression.
Repetition may reinforce belief, but the comparison is greatly
overstated and highly misleading. Anyone who knows even a bit about the
Great Depression knows that this is false.
The facts we face today are very different than the grim reality
Americans confronted between 1929 and 1932. True, this recession is not
over. But it would have to get improbably worse before it came close to
the 42-month duration of the Great Depression, or the 25% unemployment
rate in 1932. Then, the only safety net was the soup line.
The current recession is also much
less severe than the 1937-38 Depression. A more accurate comparison is
to the 1973-75 recession. Today's recession is as deep and most likely
won't be much longer than the one we experienced some three decades
ago. By pointing this out, I do not intend to minimize the damage that
the economic crisis has had on individuals and businesses. But as
policy makers make decisions in order to alleviate the recession, they
are not helped when economists overstate its severity.
The table nearby compares the current recession, the 1937-38
depression and some past severe postwar recessions. If the recession
ends this summer—as many experts predict—the record will show that it
was not very different from other postwar recessions, but very
different from the 1937-38 and 1929-32 Depressions.
So why do many opinion makers insist on inaccurate and frightening
analogies that overstate the severity of present conditions? I believe
there are several reasons.
First, there is a strong political motivation to make this recession
out to be worse than it actually is. The Obama administration wanted to
make it appear as though it saved us from an incipient disaster, so it
overstated its achievements. The White House also wanted to foist its
huge "stimulus" program on the country in order to redistribute income.
That pleased many Democrats, but did very little to restore growth.
Many others repeated the
administration's hyperbolic claims. One reason is because there is
genuine uncertainty about what has happened and what is likely to come.
Short-term forecasts have major errors, and extrapolation of current
data adds to misinformation. Then there are economists who would like
to see government take a larger role in the economy. They've chosen to
use the recession as a pretext for arguing for this change.
New York Times columnist Paul Krugman
and the International Monetary Fund repeatedly proclaimed that more
government spending was a necessity. Most economists now believe that
the recession is expected to end before much of the government spending
takes hold. And while the improvement in recent GDP data reflects a big
increase in government spending, consumer spending declined again in
the second quarter. The $787 billion of fiscal stimulus has done little
for consumers. Keynesian economists always fail to recognize the
powerful regenerative forces of the market economy. The financial
press—many of whom share their same political assumptions—endlessly
reproduces their beliefs.
The Federal Reserve also shared this Keynesian viewpoint. It
provided unprecedented monetary stimulus, increasing the monetary base
by more than $1 trillion. Much of this increase corrected for its major
mistake: allowing Lehman Brothers to fail. After 30 years of bailing
out almost all large financial firms, the Fed made the horrendous
mistake of changing its policy in the midst of a recession. That set
off a scramble for liquidity and heightened the public's distrust in
the market.
This had world-wide repercussions. For four months, many financial
markets remained frozen and real activity collapsed. Allowing Lehman to
fail without warning is one of the worst blunders in Federal Reserve
history. Extrapolation caused many market participants to conjecture
that we were in a depression. The New York Times and others piled on,
speculating foolishly about the end of capitalism.
Now, with recovery in sight, we need
to ask what kind of a recovery to expect and what kind of policies are
appropriate. My best guess is that the recovery will be a bumpy ride
along a low-growth path. Recovery will be helped by lots of monetary
stimulus and low inventories. Some calendar quarters will see healthy
growth, but trend growth will be low because housing will remain weak,
the cash for clunkers program borrowed sales from the future, and the
Obama administration's economic program raises business costs and
reduces profits.
Many pundits argue that we need another stimulus package. I
disagree. The proper response now is to repeal what remains of the
misguided stimulus and avoid the cap-and-trade program.
In their response to the recession,
Congress and the administration were more interested in redistributing
income than encouraging growth. They also ignored the lessons of the
successful Kennedy and Reagan reductions in marginal tax rates. They
added to their mistakes by enacting a temporary tax reduction as a main
element of the $787 billion stimulus. Don't they know that Presidents
Ford, Carter and Bush failed to stimulate spending with temporary tax
reductions?
A sensible administration would revise its policy. It should start
by scrapping what remains of the stimulus. As the world economy
recovers, the United States should choose to expand its exports so that
it can service its large and growing foreign debts. That means reducing
corporate tax rates to increase investment. Instead of implementing
policies that increase regulation and raise business costs, we need to
increase productivity. And the Fed should soon begin to reduce the
massive volume of outstanding bank reserves, which is the raw material
for future money growth.
Mr. Meltzer is a professor of economics at
Carnegie Mellon University and the author of "A History of the Federal
Reserve" (University of Chicago Press, 2004).